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During the last few days, one can clearly feel unstable and nervous
conditions prevailing now in power structures of Russia. Changes in Russian
leadership, made in the best tradition of Yeltsin's "man of castling",
exposed all valid degree of uncertainty of Putin in political future and
developing crisis situation in power departments of Russia. Arrival of former
officer of State Security, Ivanov to administration of the Ministry of Defense
is really unique phenomenon. Never before in history of Russia, Supreme
authority did not trust management of army to a civilian. Even pathologically
suspicious Stalin, who in 1937-39 years organized total bloody "cleaning"
of National Committee of defenses and actually subordinated military
investigation (GRU) personally to himself, bypassing supreme military command (that
precisely showed his) frank mistrust in relation to military) - even he never
reached actually to discharge military from administration of their department.
However, "small spy" (as Putin is frequently named now by his
fellow citizens) can be understood. Military finished the winter campaign, all
claims of Russian generals of "Eradication of insurgents", "liquidations
of leaders" and "last blow" appeared to be uttermost
hallucination and as many initially supposed to be pure lie. During the entire
winter months, Russian fighters were distinguished only by unprecedented,
general marauding, organization of mass executions and "sitting" on
check-post with periodic panic shooting on all moving subjects. All "cleaning"
conducted by Russian in Chechen Republic, have resulted only in growth of hatred
to invaders on part of local population and to increase the number of refugees
in neighboring Ingushetia. Neither through crushing, blocking and nor even
through resisting of the impacts of groups of Chechen resistance, Russian with
such tactics are naturally not capable of achieving any progress. Putin
understands well that time of victorious chances has passed. There comes spring,
along with its "greenery", which frightens invaders and thus hated by
them and prospects of sharp increase of losses among Russian army are becoming
more obvious to every one (even Russian mass media started to confess that the
number of groups of Chechen resistance are increasing and will carry out
regroupings and obviously make active operations). Even Putin madness is not
indefinite. Russian army cannot simply sustain third year of war. Indefinitely,
it is impossible to cheat money from fragile lean Russian budget, indefinitely
it is impossible to deceive the world community with fairy tales on "stabilization"
of conditions in Chechen Republic as scales of reprisals against the peaceful
population of Chechen Republic and powerlessness of Russian army to hide it, is
already impossible.
Russians have overstrained and are not any more in a position to
effectively protect their own military objects in Chechen Republic. In such
circumstances, it is already time for President of Russia to reflect on "honorable
variant" of flight of Russian invaders, most likely, on the Afghani style (i.e.
with leaving behind them presumably "local" administration with
subsequent financial help to puppet government, that, however, in due time could
not rescue their collaborator Nadzhibullah from the deserved penalty). Putin is
not any more in a position of scale interventions, it is already time for him to
reflect on rescue of his own political career as "hawks" from Ministry
of Defense and Ministry of Internal Affairs cannot forgive Putin for repeated
humiliation of one more defeated war.
In such conditions, it is vital for him to have people personally devoted
to him in leadership of power departments. It has been informed that employees
of Ministry of Defense have met with those of Ministry of Internal Affairs,
gently speaking, without special pleasures with approach to leadership of people,
who are perfectly strangers for their departments. Many officers in private
conversations with journalists call these assignments as offensive for personnel
employees of ministries (I shall mention that all executioners, especially with
their shoulder-straps, always think much of "professionalism" and
status). Putin has obviously set power departments against himself, but to him
not any more up to sentiments. To him as you will see soon that yet no more
"to offend" his competitors, having removed them from Chechen Republic
and having recognized thus their full lack of talent and incompetence. And then
Putin appointees should keep situations in the ministries under the control,
preserving quiet dream of the owner. However, Putin's political nightmare will
not be terminated and then. You see that after withdrawal of armies from Chechen
Republic, it will be necessary to explain to the whole world - what was that
"stabilization" and "safety", for which Russia so many years
destroyed the peaceful population of Chechen Republic and for what did Putin
begin generally this bloody adventure obviously doomed for a failure?
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