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Putin's
political nightmares start to come true.
The
problems in the Chechen Republic, where enormous military group is for the
second year powerlessly trapped down on the spot and is under attacks of groups
of the Chechen resistance as snow melts in the spring sun, the serious internal
political problems connected with projected worthless actions of authorities
around NTV and increasing opposition in the Russian society, one more serious
crisis,
that can put Putin’s regime on the edge of political crash.
It is crisis in Central Asia.
Recently
the Russian mass media (including the one which reflects the position of
authorities) with much greater alarm write about possible aggravation of
conditions on the Tajik-Afghani border and also in Uzbekistan and Kirghizia.
Despite
of demonstratively vigorous assurances of the Kremlin propagandists about "border
on the lock", this popular spell still from the Soviet times obviously does
not work.
Even
official Russian mass media are compelled to recognize since the beginning of
March 2001, activity of Mujahideen on the Tajik-Afghani border sharply increased.
Thus it is underlined that the Russian frontier guards within March have foiled
more than 15 attempts of frontier crossing, more than 5 times entered in fight
with the armed infiltrators and the Russian frontier posts at least 5 times were
subjected to shelling from the Afghani territory.
But
these statistics also are only the top of an iceberg. Frontier guards recognize
that during it is not necessary that each attempt was foiled, and, means, the
official statistics should be considered to require significant amendment
oriented at increases.
In
addition to it, here it is necessary to mention that many rocket and tank shells
were fired from territory of Afghanistan into territory of Tajikistan, and at
least six such cases were registered in March. And nobody can tell with
confidence, which of these shelling was really accidental.
Intelligence
analysis stresses Ministry of Defense of Russia to seriously consider the
incidents of cross border infiltration to Central Asia of the fighters of
Islamic armed forces (at possible active support on the part of Afghan Taliban).
Within
the framework of the program of military preparations for "reflection of
possible aggression", command - staff maneuver of "Southern board of
Commonwealth - 2001" started on April 5, 2001 in Moscow, in which various
options of joint actions of armies of the countries of CIS will be worked out in
case
of massed outbreak of Southern borders of Commonwealth.
The
course of realization of maneuvers became complicated as that Putin appointed on
the post of Minister of Defense, Sergey Ivanov, who is not the professional
military man, at all has no experience of management of armies and planning of
fighting operations, that is why simply he will not be capable on
equal
basis to cooperate with the colleagues from the countries of the CIS.
For
this reason, the level of participants of maneuvers was reduced to chiefs of the
Main operational managements of the Joint Staffs, which in itself considerably
reduces their efficiency.
The
Kremlin starts to realize all danger of the usual situation.
According
to the plan of "reflections of aggression" and in connection with the
Contract of collective safety in case of aggravation of situation in Central
Asian region, it should immediately send a significant part of additional armies,
i.e. the high-grade army grouping is created.
It
is completely clear to the Russian military men, that boundary armies, which in
this case will face the first impact of the opponent, though it for long cannot
resists to approach, and it will not 201 motor-shooting division deployed in
Tajikistan.
Russia
seriously cannot expect of support from local armed formations, as
Tajiks,
Uzbeks and Kirghiz at all do not have the desire to kill the brothers by blood
and belief to fulfill the Kremlin policies and that of the local stealing elite.
For
Russia now, it would be logical to increase the military presence at Central
Asia, deploying there additional reserves and building deeply shielded defense
if not on all fronts, then only in the most probable directions of penetration.
But
it does not occur.
Only
Moscow and Pyanz border forces are in a condition of the high alertness, but
Russia assumes to drive additional reserves only after the beginning of active
operations in Central Asia.
Experience
of numerous wars, and first of all that of the Second World War (especially
applicable to attack of Hitler on USSR) shows that overdue driving of reserve
inevitably results to the armies of the defending side even prior to the
beginning of expansion are consistently destroyed by the opponent.
Where
is the reason for such, apparently, thoughtless behavior of Moscow?
The
matter is not of levity, and unique possible option of actions for Russia in
usual conditions.
The
most efficient units of the Russian army are engaged in operations in the
Chechen Republic.
The
small Chechen Republic not only successfully resists to monstrously huge
grouping of the Russian army, but also perfectly deprives Russia of an
opportunity of maneuver on the space from Caucasus up to Central Asia.
The Russian armies deployed in territory of the Chechen Republic and in
adjoining regions of Northern Caucasus, are promptly degraded. Having stuck in a
bloody swamp of infinite "cleanings" and nonstop plunder, Russian have
finally lost last remains of fighting training and are not capable of solving of
major
problems.
The
fighting units, forced by command to realize punitive operations, cease to be
fighting group units.
Finally
they turn to demoralized horde of the executioners capable only on repressive
actions against the peaceful population.
The
OMON is not fighting army and it cannot fulfill fighting tasks. But Putin
transformed all Russian army into one big OMON, and, so, has deprived Russia of
last fighting units.
Therefore
the answer to the question that "why there is no deployment of reserves?
" It is obvious. Deployment is not realized, because there are no reserves.
Putin has lost all reserves in the Chechen Republic.
Any
country especially weakened by operations, cannot win a war on two fronts.
With
opening the second front in Central Asia, the defeat of Russia will be
inevitable (I imagine, for which pleasure then Russian liberals united around
NTV, will sink "iron Pinocchio" of Putin in an information gutter).
As
a matter of fact, Putin has three options of actions:
-
To
suffer defeat in the Chechen Republic
-
Even
at the present stage to try to keep the Chechen Republic (which is
practically impossible) and to suffer defeat in Central Asia
-
To
suffer defeat both in the Chechen Republic, and in Central Asia (that
inevitably will result in rearrangement of forces in region and crisis of
strategic scales).
The
loop is getting tighter on the neck of Russia in all directions daily.
Very
less time left has been left for Putin to take unique true decision on immediate
withdrawal of armies from the Chechen Republic and termination of support of
mafia regimes in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kirghizia. So that the country
headed by them did not begin to succumb to death agony...
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