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After
the latest announcement of general Kazantsev about desire of the Chechen side to
sit down on negotiating table, so that «to be disarmed», there has come pause
expected by all. Statement of Kazantsev and refutation of the representative of
president Maskhadov, Akhmed
Zakayev again reminded the public that to speak about
real negotiations today is so difficult, as was two years back. But between the
situation of autumn of year 1999 and autumn of year 2001, there is an essential
difference. Two years back inspired by Putin’s order «to destroy all»,
Russian felon - criminal general camarilla and did not even suppose, that sooner
or later will be necessary to talk to Chechens. With the passage of two years,
generals are not against to talk with mujahideen, but only do not know, how to
make it, not having lost the prestige.
Similar,
that rhetoric of Kazantsev, to whom the Kremlin has charged to play the role of
Yastrzhembsky and Manilov simultaneously, is dictated by necessity, somehow to
secure the main thing Kremlin’s motto, which at the beginning of the power has
precipitately promised to destroy all and everyone, who attempted upon the right
of Russia to maraud unpunitively there, where it wants. From here is the fact
that Chechens, might have thought and decided – «it is time to disarm and be
poured in peaceful life». Actually Moscow, thus, simply tries to smooth
negative impression because, that Chechen mujahideen not only «have not been
destroyed» as promised by «Kremlin gray mouse», but with them to have to sit
down on a negotiating table and to agree. And it is far from being the fact,
that results of these negotiations, with which it is necessary to be considered,
will be arranged by Moscow.
Special
choice of Moscow is not present. War in Central Asia, which at any moment can
extend to eastern territories of Russia and allied countries and full failure of
military adventure in Ichkeria, which threatens with a nightmare for the Kremlin
in Caucasus, forces the Kremlin regime to search for a way out hastily. In this
situation, the Russian leadership simply follows logic of things, which prompts,
that negotiations are necessary to use them in the achievement of purposes.
And
these purposes are transparent enough - to receive a respite; to weaken military
pressure of mujahideen on occupational armies, to transfer part of forces to
Central Asia and to avoid war on two fronts; to split leadership of Chechen
mujahideen; to use negotiations for physical elimination of the most dangerous
Chechen leaders; to establish in Ichkeria an anti-Islamic, nationalist regime,
which Moscow unsuccessfully tried to establish in years 1997-199.
Taking
into account all this, for Russia from the very beginning is important to create
such background around the planned negotiations, which would help it to bring in
split among Forces of Resistance to motivate mutual suspicions and to impose
inter-group enmity. Therefore, for both sides is very important that under what
scenario, there will be negotiations. At the same time, for those, who own real
conditions in the Chechen Republic, it is obvious, that at anyone раскладе
which to some extent will answer artful plans of the Kremlin, negotiations in
anything will not result, unless will increase number of those, who under a kind
of rescue of the nation betrays the religion and people.
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