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The
retreat of Taliban into southern regions of the country caused the actual
division of Afghanistan into two parts - Northern areas largely populated areas
of which are controlled by different ethnic groups i.e Shi'ites,
Uzbeks and Tajiks, while southern part are mainly Pashtun. In this case, Taliban
actually preserved all their combat-effective subdivisions and war machinery,
including aviation. Now, in the territories seized by opposition are acting
guerilla groups of Taliban, which practically left not one of the provinces in
the north, but in the south concentrate the subdivisions of Afghan army, which
are ready to frontal encounters with the enemy.
After
Taliban left Kabul without resistance, the concept of Afghan command became
intelligible. After avoiding serious combat in the north, and it means serious
losses, Taliban simply fell back to Pashtun territories, thus put the question
before USA, Russia and Northern Alliance, whether to conquer specifically
Pashtun or not? To all is known that England and Russia by centuries fought in
Afghanistan precisely against Pashtun as a basic force, which cements the
country.
The
same situation is being repeated. Soviet Union, invading Afghanistan, used 100
thousandth groupings of troops of the friendly pro-communist regime of Babrak
Karmal, tens of the military bases and their own 150 thousandth army of
occupation. USA has other conditions. Today the role of Karmal Communist
formations plays the so-called Northern Alliance, and role of Soviet occupation
forces - coalition subdivisions of Russia, England and USA, which are not
combined arms units, but individual detachments of commandos and military
advisers.
Specialists,
more or less familiar with Afghan specific character, express serious doubt
about the final success of the military enterprise of pro-American coalition. On
contrary, there are more signs of the fact that, after being involving in the
Afghan quagmire, USA cannot come out from it without the most serious damage for
themselves. Any attempt to strengthen its position in Afghanistan, only
strengthen final catastrophic result.
Occupation
of Kabul by Tajik formations controlled by Moscow headed by Fahim khan was
placed under enormous doubt about the leading role of USA in formation of «new
government» in Kabul. American’s protégé, ex-king Zahir Shah, on whom lay
hopes Americans, already accused Tajik leaders of breaking of understandings in
connection with the occupation of Kabul. In turn, Tajik Burhanuddin Rabbani, who
considers himself the thrown down President of Afghanistan, gave unequivocally
understand that he does not see place for Zahir Shah in Afghanistan.
Thus,
the rapid offensive of opposition created more problems for USA and their allies
and it made the task more complex one. The greatest political dividends are for
Moscow, which with occupation of Afghan capital obtained the real lever of
pressure on USA. For Washington is necessary to consider this fact. Thus, the
successes of opposition by no means indicate success of USA, although in
Washington they intensely attempt to represent situation precisely as the great
success of their tactics and strategy.
As
a result USA obtained, against the embittered and concentrated severe struggle
of Pashtun, support of Dostum, who actually controls only insignificant part of
the territory bordering Uzbekistan, unreliable pro-Russian Tajiks in Kabul and
powerful anti-American movement in nuclear Pakistan, which at any moment can
explode situation in this country from within.
Meanwhile
Amir of Islamic Emirates of Afghanistan Mullah Mohammad Omar, about flight of
which into Pakistan they hurried to report western agencies, came forward on the
radio from the staff office in Kandahar. In its presentation, Mullah Omar stated
that Taliban were intended to battle with the enemy to the end. He called
mujahideen to be subordinated to his commanders at the places, after regrouping
his forces. Mullah Omar stated that he does not doubt in the final victory of
Taliban, who defend Islam from its enemies.
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